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MIP-6: Outcomes / prediction markets

MIP-6 defines Outcomes, the MetaFlux prediction-market mechanism.

Deferred to V3

Not in v1 or v2 scope. Renumbered from MIP-4.

Outcomes are on-chain markets where users trade on the resolution of binary or categorical outcomes. MIP-6 is the MetaFlux analogue of the prediction-market improvement proposal on established on-chain venues. It is a future capability, deferred to V3.

Number history​

Outcomes had the number MIP-4 first. It got the number MIP-6 and moved from V2 to the V3 backlog when MIP-4 was reassigned. MIP-4 now names Options. Do not call Outcomes "MIP-4".

Reasons for the deferral​

  • It has a lower priority. Derivatives and perps are the main market, and the retail revenue from the MIP-4 aggregator is much larger than the Outcomes opportunity.
  • Outcomes settlement adds clearing complexity that the core does not otherwise need. It depends on external oracle resolution, time windows and dispute handling.
  • Prediction markets carry regulatory sensitivity that differs per jurisdiction. It is better to address this when the core protocol is mature.

When Outcomes ships, it ships as MIP-6 with its own resolution, oracle and dispute design. None of that design is reserved today.

See also​